The Ukrainian war panorama through the optics of former M16 Chief Richard Dearlove was aired recently.
“If we continue to rearm them, they have the dynamism and creativity to recapture significant parts of the country,” he said.
Changing bilateral relationship with Russia
“At the end of the cold war, we attempted to have a different relationship with the Russians to have a dialogue. There was a brief window, particularly after Putin was elected Tony Blair went to Moscow. I went several times, and we had a dialogue with Russia,” he said.
But the former chief spook noted that bilateral relationships soon became frosty. He spoke of things being irritant in the relationship but did not specify what they were. The US coalition-led invasion of Iraq? “The relationship soon became frosty,” he said.
Ukrainian war panorama and its likely conclusion
“It is difficult to predict the conclusion to the Ukraine War.
Very important that Ukraine emerges from this war having regained its territory, bearing in mind we are talking about naked aggression, Russia taking territory of another country,” he said.
He defined victory for Ukraine as retaking its territory but realistically believes the conflict will become frozen with a diplomatic solution resulting in some compromise.
A neocon Ukrainian war panorama
Dearlove (that has got to be an alias) views a future Trump administration as a threat. Polls are indicating Trump as a front-runner.
Trump refuses to pick a side in the conflict. “I don’t think in terms of winning and losing. I think in terms of getting it settled, so we stop killing all these people,” said Trump in May.
So a POTUS that would negotiate for peace and who claims can end the conflict in 24 hours is a threat?
Throwing more wood (arms) on the fire risks escalating conflict, which threatens global stability. Ukraine is likely to lose a gallant fight because they will deplete their fighters before Russia. Arms and munitions can be manufactured in days, weeks, and months, but it takes a nation 20 years to make a soldier. Ukraine is bleeding an entire generation of its young men, and Russia is bleeding convicts, spending redundant weapons, and they have a lot more fighting capacity.
Russia lost 25 million of its people in WW2, the second largest world exporter of arms. Everything from the ground to the factory floor is manufactured within its borders, so it has few supply chain problems, except for Chips.
Ukrainian war panorama through Dove’s eyes
De escalate war by ceasing arming Ukraine, which will force a compromise.
Then rebuild a strategic alliance based on mutual respect and mutual benefit with Russia, a nuclear-armed superpower.
Germany and Russia managed to move from a war-blood-drenched relationship into prosperous mutual trading partners. The best guarantee for peace is to build trade ties and rethinking foreign policy.
Peace and prosperity for Europe ended with the blowing up of the Nord Stream pipeline.
Neocons Shaping Ukrainian war panorama
The former head of MI6 let the cat out of the bag; peace is a threat, which makes WW3 inevitable.
Russia will not concede to Ukraine; doing so would be an existential threat. Ukraine is a buffer zone. Nukes near its border would give the US and NATO splendid first-strike capabilities, in the event of a nuclear war. Finland, which shares a border with Russia, recently joining NATO is another provocation.
Ukraine is also an energy pipeline hub connecting vast Russian gas reserves to Europe and has extensive fertile farmland.
The capital of Russia was Kyiv, so Ukraine has cultural significance to Russians.
In short, Russia’s Putin will not give up the war until Ukraine is within Russia’s orbit, and anything less would cost Putin huge political capital.
Removal of Putin in a coup is unrealistic. Russian sentiment is difficult to gauge, with the media controlling the narrative.
But Russian Gun laws, a leader’s fear index, have not tightened much since the outbreak of the invasion.
Adults with no criminal record and no mental health issues can own arms in Russia. From our history, we know that tyrannical despots, there have been a few in Europe, Hitler, Franco, and Starlin, disarm their population before murdering their domestic political opponents.
So Putin, an autocratic populist leader, does not appear to fear his people.
Being a populist leader does not prevent ending a sudden death; JF Kennedy, a popular US President, was assassinated, and then the Vietnam War, which he vehemently opposed sending US troops to fight, broke out.
Ukrainian war panorama and European Security
The outcome of the war could redefine the future security architecture of Europe. Russia’s naked aggression has rattled European stability, and it is rational to fear a powerful neighbour, particularly if relations turn frosty.
But the naked truth is that the neocons have been provoking and preparing for this war for some time. The Minsk Agreement, a peace agreement proposed by Russia in 2015 was not taken seriously by US/NATO. Instead, it was a way to buy time to arm and train Ukraine to fight Russia.
NATO’s ongoing expansion on Russia’s borders was also not on the agenda in 1989.
Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction didn’t exist, and Assad didn’t do the chemical attacks on his people. Trust between the two great nuclear powers has collapsed. Would you trust a side that plans for war behind your back while you are trying to negotiate for peace, that lies into wars and continues expanding a military alliance near your border several times?
WW3 has already begun. The famous photo of Stalin, Roosevelt, and Churchill post-WW2 united in defeating Germany marked a brief period of peace in Europe. Then, the Cold War, the Proxy war in 2014 and another global war nearly 80 years later, about the time needed to erase living memory of the horrors of war.
Peace threatens the Neocon’s plan to complete their final conquest of global domination. There has been a silent coup, in Washington Neocons on both sides of the political party are pushing war, and NATO is drawing up Russian war plans.
So with a wider war in Europe looming, European assets are at high risk.
Compare the performance of assets against USD or gold, and European markets have not performed well.
See former MI6 Chief interview here.