Primed For War

A populace is being primed for war, which could explain why the peace movement is dead as the world sleepwalks knee-deep into WW3.     

The State of Russia 2024 (Documentary); Centre for Eastern Studies explains Russians are being primed for war and why there is little resistance to it. 

The Russian invasion of Ukraine, a war on the east front now in its third year, bleeds on, and there are no signs, albeit public, of a negotiated settlement or a peace plan. Europe’s worst war since WW2 continues as the allies support Ukraine with fresh weapons and finance to keep Ukraine’s war resistance flame burning. Russia has stepped up the fight. It is no longer a special military operation and is now on a war footing.  

Darren Winters points out, Russian advantage is not by troops’ numbers but by artillery firepower, aviation and the advantage in missile systems.

Primed For War

The build-up of Russian forces continued in 2023. Military-age men are attracted to join the military with 2,000 USD equivalent incentives, an attractive salary for most Russians. 

In December 2023, Putin provided information about the front line, which reconciles with Ukraine and US intelligence. 

A total of 617,000 troops were involved in this operation.

Ukraine claims to have 880,000 soldiers, with an advantage of two to three in their favour. 

Ukraine has approximately 300,00 soldiers on the front, while Russia has 200,000 Russians, according to US intelligence. 

The war has moved into a positional stage, with Russia building defensive positions largely fortified and deeply embedded, similar to German and French units in WW1.

Lines of fortification are several lines deep.

The first line is trenches, fortifications and dragon’s teeth, and the second and third lines are bunkers. Sometimes there are five positions on one line and dozens of kilometres between the lines of fortification. 

It’s proving very difficult for Ukraine to break through Russia’s defensive positions.

An attempt to do so could lead to a failed counter-offensive attempt by the Ukrinans last summer 2023.

Troops killed or wounded and unable to fight are high on both sides   

Russian losses 70,000 as of November 2023, with 180,000 to 200,000  soldiers injured and unable to return to the front.

Russian overwhelming firepower and air advantage mean Ukraine has paid an extremely high human cost for resisting the Russian onslaught.    A Polish General estimated Ukraine’s losses are about one million. 

Russian Naval expansion suggests the populace is being primed for war

The construction of two nuclear submarines during a wartime economy supports the view that we are witnessing the preliminary phase of Russian military expansionism beyond the European continent. 

The expansion of the navy during wartime indicates an economy with the financial and industrial capacity to sustain its army and navy. 

Moreover, Russia is the most US-sanctioned country in the world, but sanctions have failed to starve the war machine.

Sanctions imposed on Russia have several layers; they entail Russian companies engaged in the oil and gas sector, and refiners of the product, including companies cooperating with the sector, such as traders and fleet operators. The embargo placed on the oil and gas sector imposed by the EU and G7 countries is another layer of sanctions. 

A price cap was also imposed on Russian fuel and oil. 

Darren Winters explains that despite the sanctions, the Russian economy continues to grow, evidence that BRICS is a rival to a US-centric sphere of influence. 

Russian GDP 1.2% 2022 and 3.6% GDP 2023 and 1.8% in 2024 

A sobering question follows; 

Why would Putin’s Russia expand its Navy if it had no intention of projecting power, flexing its muscles beyond its land borders?

Russia could be positioning itself as the BRICS bloc strong arm, a rival economic and geopolitical system outside the US sphere of influence and the USD. 

The populace is being primed for war as the US, its allies and Russian companies profit from the war economy

The military-industrial complex on both sides would be happy to see a protracted war. 

 Western companies are benefiting from the war. Russia at war means that the G7 economies can purchase Russian gas provided it doesn’t exceed the strict cap of 60 USD per barrel.

So Russia in war means energy companies can profit by short-changing Russia, buying  Russian oil below market rate and selling to their customers at a markup for profits. 

War-torn Ukraine may have most of its civil infrastructure damaged, but someone has managed to keep its logistic pipeline intact with Russian Gas flowing through it. The EU is still buying Russian Gas.     

Primed for war, the beneficiaries are many

Everyone is suckling on the teat of a thriving war economy and rampant corruption. 

The Kremlin is buying the loyalty of certain groups.  There are beneficiaries when the state engages in asset seizures. JP Morgan has had half a billion dollars of assets confiscated, which rattles the bank, but is a bonanza for the Russian state. Creeping nationalisation means that property rights can be challenged, so it is wise to be loyal to the state.

The US and its allies are also engaging in multi-billion-dollar asset seizures.  So, war legalises asset seizures, which benefit the ruling political elites in the West and the Russian Nomenklatura.

State administrative apparatus and secret services engaged in weakening Western support for Ukraine, law enforcement buddies, and all groups linked to the MIC are suckling on the war economy. 

The same is true for the West.  When a hundred billion dollar budget is approved to fund wars on multiple fronts, is anyone auditing the financial accounts? Under the veil of secrecy, public funds were embezzled. 

Plebs are also being primed for war

The military is probably the only way to climb the social ladder out of poverty and misery if you come from an economically deprived region with few options.  

Many of the Russian troops, similar to the US troops in Iraq, come from poor regions, so the war has offered them financial gains and status.

Poor kids of one country killing poor kids of another’s for rich men’s war.  

But the military, where trades and professions are taught, is one way out of misery for many poor and middle-class kids, so the war protest among the plebs is also silent.

Primed for war in a neo-totalitarian state

Opponents of the regime are intimidated, imprisoned, tortured and sometimes killed. 

Senior Fellow Russian Department  Maria Domanska notes unprecedented oppression of the  LGBT community that threatens traditional family values.  The invasion of Ukraine is depicted as an existential threat. She notes that to keep Russian society mobilized and rallying around the flag, a new generation is being raised and brainwashed to fight a patriotic war. 

Anti-war expression is illegal. There is mass censorship of artists, writers and journalists. 

Now active support is being called for the support of this, in their mass critical mind, is a patriotic war, which is an aggressive war.

Everyone should be involved and accountable because this guarantees loyalty to the totalitarian regime.

“Krugovaya poruka” comes from the Mafa criminal world, meaning everyone has collective responsibility, and complicity in the crime guarantees loyalty to the regime.

The populace is being primed for war on both sides.   

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