Tail Risk

Keeping an eye on tail risk

As Darren Winters points out, keeping an eye on tail risk in the age of frothy asset prices fueled by unprecedented central bank liquidity and the recent black swan event (or maybe better said black bat event) Coronavirus would be prudent.  “Anyone pricing assets must consider the ‘tail risk’ that virus outbreak could ‘get much …

Recession

Recession

A paralysis in business investment causes a recession, which is characterized by a drop in trade, economic activity is reduced, and there is rising unemployment. A recession is officially declared when Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a measure of economic activity, falls in two successive quarters  As Darren Winters explains, a typical economic model of a …