The Trump administration’s America first policy will usher in the mother of all trade wars.
“A trade war is now not likely but inevitable, Trumponomics is a view with a kill to the status quo of international trade which has created twin US deficits; the fiscal deficit and the current account deficit,” we wrote back on June 21, 2018, in a piece entitled, Trade War.
America first policy is now being implemented by the current US administration
As Darren Winters explains, a nasty trade war with China could be US President Trump’s preferred battle. It is a target rich battleground from the US’s perspective. Those countries with the largest trade deficits with the US could be targeted. China is at the top of the hit list with $636 billion traded with a $375 billion deficit.
Then comes Canada $582 billion traded with an $18 billion deficit.
Mexico next with $557billion traded with a $71 billion deficit and then Japan with $204 billion traded with a $69 billion deficit.
Germany will be the biggest target in a trade war in Europe with $171 billion traded with a $65 billion deficit.
America first policy is the dawn of Americanism, the end of globalism and maybe even Europeanism
A US-inspired trade war with China could be just the beginning of the end of what was called “free trade”. America first policy could also reinforce the idea that unrestricted access to US markets would only be granted to those countries loyal to US economic and strategic interests.
America first policy is also about strengthening Atlanticism
But Atlanticism, a belief that the world’s stability and prosperity come between a close-knit relationship between Western Europe and the US through economic and military cooperation, is in conflict with Europeanism. Europe’s pivot East along the new Silk Road is not in the US interests, so it will be disrupted. US trade sanctions on Iran, a US-inspired trade war with China is about road-blocking the new Silk Road into oblivion.
America first policy will likely trump over Europeanism for Europe is already occupied
The US still maintains nearly 800 military bases in more than 70 countries with many of those bases being in Europe.
America first policy could mean the beginning of a wave of bilateral trade deals with the US and rolling out the red carpet for US presidential state visits. To put it bluntly, it means to suck up to the US and not China or face economic ruin. US State Department publishes, then deletes sadistic Venezuela hit list boasting of economic ruin.
What America first policy could mean for investors is buy everything American as apple pie.